A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
